Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Miranasignature
N1NE · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
B8 Esports
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
Disruptor
Lodine · 7 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Tinysignature
Dendi · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
Funn1k · 6 games
Linasignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
742 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 473 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1011 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 964 bans
Doom
392 picks · 637 bans
Undying
390 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 33%
Hero pool strength61% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:37
Sand King Gomez 59%B8 Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PugnaN1NE
Monkey KingStoneBank
50% · 8 games
MagnusFunn1k
53% · 13 games
Void SpiritDendi
little data
ClinkzCTOMAHEH1
39% · 14 games
DisruptorLodine
Game 2prediction missed14:40
Sand King Gomez 63%B8 Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MiranaN1NE
WindrangerDendi
53% · 74 games
Monkey KingStoneBank
46% · 104 games
EnchantressFunn1k
60% · 11 games
Bounty HunterCTOMAHEH1
50% · 28 games
TechiesLodine
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 68%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2