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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 20 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 11 games
73%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
88%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%

nouns

Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 8 games
63%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
YamSun · 8 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Husky · 8 games
75%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
745 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 472 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1012 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 377 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 962 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
390 picks · 636 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
389 picks · 603 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 205 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total58% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:28
Team DogChamp 48%nouns 52%
The model gave 52% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdnm
53% · 79 games51% · 355 games
DoomMoo
Doom
Puck
Puckred2
61% · 117 games49% · 75 games
Troll WarlordYamSun
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSpeeed
55% · 180 games34% · 72 games
WindrangerGunnar
Windranger
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
53% · 158 games47% · 33 games
ClinkzLelis
Clinkz
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
47% · 134 games48% · 133 games
TechiesHusky
Techies
Game 2prediction correct17:34
Team DogChamp 48%nouns 52%
The model gave 52% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdnm
49% · 107 games61% · 31 game
MedusaYamSun
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void Spiritred2
50% · 95 games53% · 115 games
DoomMoo
Doom
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSpeeed
49% · 22 games42% · 30 games
MagnusGunnar
Magnus
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMoOz
49% · 35 games50% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightLelis
Keeper of the Light
Oracle
OracleBloody Nine
50% · 32 games46% · 37 games
VenomancerHusky
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 58%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2