Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
Tiny
Save- · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 13 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
Virtus.pro
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
Tiny
sayuw · 19 games
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
Mirana
sayuw · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 12 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
746 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 472 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1012 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 962 bans
Doom
391 picks · 634 bans
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total57% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
BETBOOM TEAM 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 53:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNightfall
LunaKiritych
UnderlordPure~
PangolierSquad1x
TinygpK~
MagnusNoticed
Keeper of the LightSave-
Spirit BreakerFng
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Skywrath Magesayuw
Game 2prediction correct20:7
BETBOOM TEAM 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNightfall
JuggernautKiritych
TinygpK~
Ember SpiritSquad1x
AxePure~
MagnusNoticed
Keeper of the LightSave-
Skywrath Magesayuw
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow DemonFng
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 57%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2