Чемпионат России 2023 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MCASTwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BVbela veteroloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MCAST
No games played over 6 months.
bela vetero
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
746 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 472 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1012 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 962 bans
Doom
391 picks · 634 bans
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% MCAST
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% bela vetero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MCAST 50%bela vetero 50%
The model gave 50% on bela vetero — the game was taken by MCAST.
Game 2prediction missed
MCAST 50%bela vetero 50%
The model gave 50% on bela vetero — the game was taken by MCAST.
Model check result
Model favoritebela vetero · 50%
Series resultMCAST 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2