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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Mirana
Miranasignature
Gilgir · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 11 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Panto · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 10 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 16 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hellscream · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
747 picks · 608 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 472 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1013 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 377 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 962 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
392 picks · 632 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 205 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:21
One Move 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on One Move — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAinkrad
56% · 324 games49% · 100 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
55% · 275 games54% · 263 games
Death ProphetCorrupted
Death Prophet
Magnus
MagnusAfterLife
42% · 87 games50% · 358 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaGilgir
53% · 414 games45% · 540 games
Rubickso bad
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
45% · 275 games49% · 114 games
TechiesHellscream
Techies
Game 2prediction correct28:34
One Move 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 54:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAinkrad
57% · 191 game49% · 104 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
55% · 63 games48% · 219 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGilgir
50% · 50 games42% · 47 games
MagnusCorrupted
Magnus
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAfterLife
49% · 71 game49% · 71 game
TechiesHellscream
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
47% · 257 games52% · 191 game
Disruptorso bad
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 51%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2