Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNNorfloss 0:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GOGen of Miracleswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Norf
No games played over 6 months.
Gen of Miracles
Disruptor
Stoic · 1 game
Doomoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Grimstroke
Stoic · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
747 picks · 608 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 472 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1013 bans
Tiny
403 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 962 bans
Doom
392 picks · 632 bans
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% Norf
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Norf
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Norf 51%Gen of Miracles 49%
The model gave 51% on Norf — the game was taken by Gen of Miracles.
Model check result
Model favoriteNorf · 51%
Series resultGen of Miracles 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1