Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Brightloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Bright
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 4 games
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
748 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 471 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1010 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 376 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 955 bans
Doom
392 picks · 628 bans
Undying
386 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:24
Invictus Gaming 56%Team Bright 44%
The model gave 56% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Bright in 56:51.
Game 2prediction missed31:8
Invictus Gaming 56%Team Bright 44%
The model gave 56% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Bright in 46:23.
Game 3prediction missed39:15
Invictus Gaming 56%Team Bright 44%
The model gave 56% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Bright in 42:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 56%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3