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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 32 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 17 games
47%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%

B8 Esports

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
17%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 7 games
43%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dendi · 7 games
86%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Lina
Linasignature
StoneBank · 6 games
83%
Mirana
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
749 picks · 607 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 470 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1007 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
406 picks · 377 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 949 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
393 picks · 621 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
386 picks · 604 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 36%
Hero pool strength59% TSM
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:28
TSM 70%B8 Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTimado
40% · 37 games47% · 55 games
BloodseekerStoneBank
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbryle-
46% · 72 games49% · 100 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Batrider
Batriderkasane
58% · 129 games47% · 42 games
UnderlordFunn1k
Underlord
Clinkz
ClinkzAri
44% · 8 games51% · 15 games
Bounty HunterCTOMAHEH1
Bounty Hunter
Oracle
OracleWhitemon
63% · 11 games57% · 45 games
TechiesLodine
Techies
Game 2prediction correct23:19
TSM 71%B8 Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
53% · 262 games52% · 74 games
SlarkStoneBank
Slark
Timbersaw
Timbersawbryle-
50% · 213 games48% · 196 games
BeastmasterFunn1k
Beastmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
50% · 62 games47% · 173 games
PangolierDendi
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
54% · 97 games45% · 320 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
54% · 168 games46% · 39 games
LichLodine
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 84%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2