Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
Miranasignature
Fly · 14 games
Sand King Gomez
Miranasignature
N1NE · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
748 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1006 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 948 bans
Doom
392 picks · 620 bans
Undying
386 picks · 604 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
Shopify Rebellion 77%Sand King Gomez 23%
The model gave 77% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendArteezy
Keeper of the LightN1NE
MagnusSabeRLight-
Void SpiritAbed
ClinkzCr1t-
TechiesFly
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Shopify Rebellion 79%Sand King Gomez 21%
The model gave 79% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomSabeRLight-
RubickN1NE
PangolierAbed
WindrangerArteezy
LionCr1t-
PhoenixFly
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 92%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2