Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Cubil Gamingloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pacific esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cubil Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Pacific esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
750 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1004 bans
Tiny
407 picks · 374 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 947 bans
Doom
391 picks · 616 bans
Undying
387 picks · 602 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Cubil Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Pacific esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
Cubil Gaming 50%Pacific esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 28:52.
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Cubil Gaming 50%Pacific esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 28:56.
Model check result
Model favoritePacific esports · 50%
Series resultPacific esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2