Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Cubil Gamingwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PEPegasus Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cubil Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Pegasus Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 469 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1000 bans
Tiny
408 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 945 bans
Doom
391 picks · 611 bans
Undying
387 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Cubil Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Cubil Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
Cubil Gaming 52%Pegasus Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Cubil Gaming — the game was taken by Cubil Gaming in 32:41.
Game 2prediction correct2:4
Cubil Gaming 52%Pegasus Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Cubil Gaming — the game was taken by Cubil Gaming in 8:55.
Game 3prediction correct18:28
Cubil Gaming 52%Pegasus Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Cubil Gaming — the game was taken by Cubil Gaming in 43:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteCubil Gaming · 52%
Series resultCubil Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3