Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Taka-loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Block Roar Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Taka-
No games played over 6 months.
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetsignature
NaoG · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 469 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1000 bans
Tiny
408 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 945 bans
Doom
391 picks · 611 bans
Undying
387 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Block Roar Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:37
Team Taka- 32%Block Roar Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 35:35.
Game 2prediction correct19:28
Team Taka- 32%Block Roar Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 38:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlock Roar Esports · 68%
Series resultBlock Roar Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2