Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNLNo Limits Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RERandoms Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Limits Gaming
Tusk
Zxca · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
JP · 7 games
Doomsignature
drakesh1t · 6 games
Rubicksignature
Zxca · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Alone · 4 games
Randoms Esports
Templar Assassinoften banned
Benny · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Benny · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Benny · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 469 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1000 bans
Tiny
408 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 945 bans
Doom
391 picks · 611 bans
Undying
387 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% No Limits Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:25
No Limits Gaming 55%Randoms Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 34:14.
Game 2prediction missed42:28
No Limits Gaming 55%Randoms Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by Randoms Esports in 47:13.
Game 3prediction correct46:24
No Limits Gaming 55%Randoms Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 50:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 55%
Series resultNo Limits Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3