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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:1
D2 Hustlersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 21 game
81%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 18 games
78%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 17 games
82%

D2 Hustlers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 604 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 469 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
423 picks · 998 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
408 picks · 375 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 944 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
391 picks · 608 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
386 picks · 602 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength66% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:32
Team Liquid 94%D2 Hustlers 6%
The model gave 94% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 27:11.
Game 2prediction correct42:37
Team Liquid 94%D2 Hustlers 6%
The model gave 94% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 53:39.
Game 3prediction correct53:43
Team Liquid 94%D2 Hustlers 6%
The model gave 94% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 57:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 94%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3