Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionNNoTinkerloss 0:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
kefteme.mp3win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoTinker
No games played over 6 months.
kefteme.mp3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 604 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 469 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 998 bans
Tiny
408 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 944 bans
Doom
391 picks · 608 bans
Undying
386 picks · 602 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% NoTinker
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% NoTinker
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
NoTinker 52%kefteme.mp3 48%
The model gave 52% on NoTinker — the game was taken by kefteme.mp3.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoTinker · 52%
Series resultkefteme.mp3 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1