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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 24 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
37%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 13 games
77%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 469 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 1001 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 375 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 944 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
392 picks · 606 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
387 picks · 602 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 206 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:42
Execration 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 32:20.
Game 2prediction missed11:49
Execration 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 31:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2