Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XERXIAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
xNova · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 8 games
Miranasignature
Xepher · 8 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
xNova · 8 games
Rubick
Xepher · 7 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 7 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 469 bans
Beastmaster
422 picks · 1000 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 943 bans
Doom
392 picks · 604 bans
Undying
387 picks · 602 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
BOOM Esports 72%XERXIA 28%
The model gave 72% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:24.
Game 2prediction correct20:6
BOOM Esports 72%XERXIA 28%
The model gave 72% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 32:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 72%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2