Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionOoutlawlogicloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GateKeptwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
outlawlogic
No games played over 6 months.
GateKept
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 469 bans
Beastmaster
425 picks · 1005 bans
Tiny
412 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 941 bans
Doom
395 picks · 606 bans
Undying
388 picks · 602 bans
Mirana
386 picks · 207 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% outlawlogic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% outlawlogic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:4
outlawlogic 63%GateKept 37%
The model gave 63% on outlawlogic — the game was taken by GateKept in 24:22.
Game 2prediction missed47:6
outlawlogic 63%GateKept 37%
The model gave 63% on outlawlogic — the game was taken by GateKept in 21:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteoutlawlogic · 63%
Series resultGateKept 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2