Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTBThe butcherloss 0:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ooutlawlogicwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The butcher
No games played over 6 months.
outlawlogic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
760 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 468 bans
Beastmaster
425 picks · 1005 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 942 bans
Doom
396 picks · 605 bans
Undying
391 picks · 602 bans
Mirana
386 picks · 207 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% The butcher
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% outlawlogic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
The butcher 46%outlawlogic 54%
The model gave 54% on outlawlogic — the game was taken by outlawlogic.
Model check result
Model favoriteoutlawlogic · 54%
Series resultoutlawlogic 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1