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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Mirana
Miranasignature
Nuages · 25 games
68%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 19 games
37%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 12 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Oscar · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Jupiter · 10 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
mini-` · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hyko · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
44%

Mad Kings

Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 20 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 16 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 15 games
80%
Silencer
Silencer
Gardick · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
ArzenT · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
761 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 469 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1008 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 379 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 945 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
396 picks · 603 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
393 picks · 602 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 208 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:12
Infamous 41%Mad Kings 59%
The model gave 59% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Infamous in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingmini-`
48% · 123 games47% · 338 games
Ember SpiritPiPi
Ember Spirit
Batrider
Batrider4dr
55% · 180 games56% · 215 games
Monkey KingDaaD-
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerHyko
44% · 119 games53% · 61 game
OmniknightArzenT
Omniknight
Mirana
MiranaNuages
52% · 226 games46% · 60 games
TechiesGenek
Techies
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJupiter
45% · 26 games
Game 2prediction missed30:7
Infamous 39%Mad Kings 61%
The model gave 61% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Infamous in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenmini-`
48% · 93 games53% · 117 games
AlchemistDaaD-
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawHyko
51% · 197 games48% · 312 games
Ember SpiritPiPi
Ember Spirit
Void Spirit
Void Spirit4dr
47% · 137 games51% · 184 games
DawnbreakerArzenT
Dawnbreaker
Mirana
MiranaNuages
53% · 360 games48% · 445 games
RubickGenek
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJupiter
51% · 271 game
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 68%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2