Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Bald Dynastyloss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bald Dynasty
Anti-Mageoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Matreshka Team
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
Disruptor
JANTER · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
761 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 469 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1006 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 943 bans
Doom
396 picks · 601 bans
Undying
393 picks · 602 bans
Mirana
386 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:26
Bald Dynasty 48%Matreshka Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 42:30.
Game 2prediction correct19:30
Bald Dynasty 48%Matreshka Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 36:50.
Game 3prediction correct
Bald Dynasty 48%Matreshka Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 52%
Series resultMatreshka Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3