Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Bald Dynastywin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Anime Enjoyersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bald Dynasty
Anti-Mageoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Anime Enjoyers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
761 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1005 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 940 bans
Doom
395 picks · 600 bans
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
Nature's Prophet
386 picks · 662 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Anime Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Anime Enjoyers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:19
Bald Dynasty 41%Anime Enjoyers 59%
The model gave 59% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 32:40.
Game 2prediction missed27:20
Bald Dynasty 41%Anime Enjoyers 59%
The model gave 59% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 42:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteAnime Enjoyers · 59%
Series resultBald Dynasty 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2