?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Rectifyloss 0:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Neon Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rectify

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MangO · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sans · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Ponyo · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 6 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Ws · 5 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Ws · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sans · 4 games
25%

Neon Esports

Silencer
Silencer
Hated · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hated · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Enryu · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
761 picks · 607 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 470 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1005 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 379 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 940 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
395 picks · 600 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
386 picks · 662 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Rectify 28%Neon Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 72%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1