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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hellscream · 11 games
82%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Shergarat · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 9 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Shergarat · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mary_y · 8 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Palantimos · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
760 picks · 610 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 469 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1005 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 940 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
394 picks · 598 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
387 picks · 664 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Nemiga Gaming 57%UALEIKUMNIHAO 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 26:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
49% · 145 games49% · 448 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomCorrupted
54% · 205 games50% · 235 games
TerrorbladePalantimos
Terrorblade
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
49% · 181 game60% · 72 games
VenomancerShergarat
Venomancer
Rubick
RubickHellscream
44% · 375 games50% · 63 games
Spirit Breakerb1kA
Spirit Breaker
Techies
Techiesso bad
56% · 76 games44% · 164 games
Skywrath MageMary_y
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct49:45
Nemiga Gaming 56%UALEIKUMNIHAO 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 58:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
53% · 67 games56% · 29 games
MedusaPalantimos
Medusa
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCorrupted
45% · 55 games50% · 153 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMalr1ne
49% · 139 games56% · 175 games
BatriderShergarat
Batrider
Techies
TechiesHellscream
47% · 115 games45% · 22 games
Bounty Hunterb1kA
Bounty Hunter
Silencer
Silencerso bad
48% · 270 games49% · 267 games
RubickMary_y
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2