Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AArcaneloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Jakiro
Sj · 12 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ash · 7 games
Tusksignature
Drink · 7 games
Arcane
Alchemistoften banned
Fonte · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Victoria · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
Victoria · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Fonte · 1 game
Omniknight
Storm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
760 picks · 610 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 468 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1004 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 939 bans
Doom
394 picks · 596 bans
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
Nature's Prophet
387 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Arcane
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:22
iG Vitality 50%Arcane 50%
The model gave 50% on Arcane — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mageukiyo
TerrorbladeFonte
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm SpiritStorm
BeastmasterTzy
PangolierKilla
PugnaHara
Crystal MaidenVictoria
SilencerPonyo
Game 2prediction missed28:14
iG Vitality 48%Arcane 52%
The model gave 52% on Arcane — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mageukiyo
SlarkFonte
PuckButterflyEffect
AlchemistKilla
MagnusTzy
Storm SpiritStorm
TechiesHara
PugnaVictoria
GrimstrokePonyo
Model check result
Model favoriteArcane · 52%
Series resultiG Vitality 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2