Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTRTeam Renewalloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RRectifywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Renewal
No games played over 6 months.
Rectify
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MangO · 9 games
Snapfire
Sans · 7 games
Tiny
Ponyo · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 6 games
Marcioften banned
Ws · 5 games
Tusk
Ws · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 4 games
Hoodwink
Sans · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
760 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 468 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1004 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 938 bans
Doom
394 picks · 593 bans
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
Nature's Prophet
387 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Team Renewal
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Renewal
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
Team Renewal 61%Rectify 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Renewal — the game was taken by Rectify in 18:59.
Game 2prediction missed43:11
Team Renewal 61%Rectify 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Renewal — the game was taken by Rectify in 19:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Renewal · 61%
Series resultRectify 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2