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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 9 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
TK · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 6 games
33%

Azure Ray

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
zzq · 12 games
92%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BEYOND · 9 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
天命 · 9 games
100%
Riki
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
7e · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
760 picks · 608 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 467 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1004 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 940 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
393 picks · 593 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
388 picks · 665 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength69% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:17
Aster.Aries 41%Azure Ray 59%
The model gave 59% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom生死
58% · 256 games41% · 50 games
Phantom Lancerlou
Phantom Lancer
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeUlu
51% · 154 games50% · 260 games
Ember SpiritSomnus
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerXwy
55% · 41 game46% · 92 games
UnderlordChalice
Underlord
Techies
TechiesTK
50% · 104 games49% · 121 game
Keeper of the Lightfy
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerRedPanda
53% · 173 games45% · 205 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct49:35
Aster.Aries 43%Azure Ray 57%
The model gave 57% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 58:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidUlu
57% · 80 games55% · 44 games
Lone Druidlou
Lone Druid
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
46% · 254 games33% · 34 games
Spirit BreakerChalice
Spirit Breaker
Underlord
Underlord生死
43% · 40 games49% · 40 games
WindrangerSomnus
Windranger
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterTK
55% · 42 games51% · 400 games
Rubickfy
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerRedPanda
60% · 171 game48% · 69 games
Techies天命
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 64%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2