Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionRRectifywin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HHashtag.Reaperloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rectify
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MangO · 9 games
Snapfire
Sans · 7 games
Tiny
Ponyo · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 6 games
Marcioften banned
Ws · 5 games
Tusk
Ws · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 4 games
Hoodwink
Sans · 4 games
Hashtag.Reaper
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
762 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 466 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1001 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 939 bans
Doom
393 picks · 592 bans
Undying
392 picks · 604 bans
Nature's Prophet
389 picks · 666 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Hashtag.Reaper
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Hashtag.Reaper
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:40
Rectify 44%Hashtag.Reaper 56%
The model gave 56% on Hashtag.Reaper — the game was taken by Rectify in 44:39.
Game 2prediction missed
Rectify 44%Hashtag.Reaper 56%
The model gave 56% on Hashtag.Reaper — the game was taken by Rectify.
Model check result
Model favoriteHashtag.Reaper · 56%
Series resultRectify 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2