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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sand King Gomez

Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 5 games
60%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 5 games
80%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
100%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
0%

Lucky Bird

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
BlackSoul · 6 games
17%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undyingsignature
empyrean5 · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 5 games
20%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 5 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
759 picks · 604 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 464 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 995 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 379 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 932 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
390 picks · 667 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
390 picks · 598 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
389 picks · 587 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength63% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total54% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:27
Sand King Gomez 54%Lucky Bird 46%
The model gave 54% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 53:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzN1NE
43% · 3 gameslittle data
Ursablessed kid
Ursa
57% · 3 games
UnderlordSatoshi-
Underlord
Game 2prediction correct23:7
Sand King Gomez 55%Lucky Bird 45%
The model gave 55% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 25:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaN1NE
51% · 150 games48% · 99 games
BeastmasterSatoshi-
Beastmaster
51% · 51 game
Slarkblessed kid
Slark
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 54%
Series resultSand King Gomez 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2