Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CCAPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
For Fun
No games played over 6 months.
CAP
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 604 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 464 bans
Beastmaster
422 picks · 995 bans
Tiny
418 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 932 bans
Nature's Prophet
390 picks · 667 bans
Undying
390 picks · 598 bans
Doom
389 picks · 587 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% For Fun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% CAP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:17
For Fun 42%CAP 58%
The model gave 58% on CAP — the game was taken by For Fun in 30:58.
Game 2prediction correct29:57
For Fun 42%CAP 58%
The model gave 58% on CAP — the game was taken by CAP in 54:03.
Game 3prediction correct14:35
For Fun 42%CAP 58%
The model gave 58% on CAP — the game was taken by CAP in 32:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteCAP · 58%
Series resultCAP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3