Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Block Roar Esportsloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
los moticucoswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetsignature
NaoG · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
los moticucos
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
764 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 463 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 999 bans
Tiny
420 picks · 381 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 933 bans
Undying
394 picks · 599 bans
Nature's Prophet
393 picks · 670 bans
Doom
389 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Block Roar Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:30
Block Roar Esports 52%los moticucos 48%
The model gave 52% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by los moticucos in 39:19.
Game 2prediction correct7:28
Block Roar Esports 52%los moticucos 48%
The model gave 52% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 30:08.
Game 3prediction missed40:18
Block Roar Esports 52%los moticucos 48%
The model gave 52% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by los moticucos in 33:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlock Roar Esports · 52%
Series resultlos moticucos 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3