Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam salchipapaloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Block Roar Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team salchipapa
No games played over 6 months.
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetsignature
NaoG · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 462 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 992 bans
Tiny
423 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 927 bans
Undying
394 picks · 596 bans
Nature's Prophet
393 picks · 670 bans
Doom
389 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Block Roar Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:30
Team salchipapa 47%Block Roar Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 40:39.
Game 2prediction missed29:15
Team salchipapa 47%Block Roar Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Team salchipapa in 42:23.
Game 3prediction correct30:35
Team salchipapa 47%Block Roar Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 44:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlock Roar Esports · 53%
Series resultBlock Roar Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3