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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
based teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 25 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 22 games
32%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 19 games
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
W1sh- · 14 games
71%

based team

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
765 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 460 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 379 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 989 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 926 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
394 picks · 596 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
393 picks · 670 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
389 picks · 571 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:21
KZ TEAM 57%based team 43%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 57:56.
Game 2prediction missed32:30
KZ TEAM 57%based team 43%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by based team in 43:50.
Game 3prediction correct39:19
KZ TEAM 57%based team 43%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 59:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 57%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3