Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionBTbased teamwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GOGen of Miraclesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
based team
No games played over 6 months.
Gen of Miracles
Disruptor
Stoic · 1 game
Doomoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Grimstroke
Stoic · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
767 picks · 604 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 456 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 379 bans
Beastmaster
422 picks · 983 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 925 bans
Undying
396 picks · 596 bans
Nature's Prophet
394 picks · 670 bans
Doom
389 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% based team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Gen of Miracles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:28
based team 42%Gen of Miracles 58%
The model gave 58% on Gen of Miracles — the game was taken by based team in 39:26.
Game 2prediction missed25:10
based team 42%Gen of Miracles 58%
The model gave 58% on Gen of Miracles — the game was taken by based team in 21:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteGen of Miracles · 58%
Series resultbased team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2