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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
sQreen's Squadloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

sQreen's Squad

No games played over 6 months.

Matreshka Team

Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
767 picks · 604 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 456 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 379 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 981 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 924 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
396 picks · 596 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
394 picks · 670 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
389 picks · 563 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:16
sQreen's Squad 34%Matreshka Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 36:05.
Game 2prediction correct39:23
sQreen's Squad 34%Matreshka Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 42:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 66%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2