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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 18 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%

Bleed Esports

Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DuBu · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 6 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
PlayHard · 5 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
DuBu · 4 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
769 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 454 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
430 picks · 380 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
420 picks · 982 bans
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
396 picks · 674 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
396 picks · 596 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 925 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
389 picks · 557 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:22
Team SMG 50%Bleed Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 49:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMidOne
54% · 265 games50% · 92 games
BloodseekerJaCkky
Bloodseeker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAhFu
49% · 89 games45% · 132 games
Batridericeiceice
Batrider
Venomancer
VenomancerJaunuel
65% · 33 games54% · 48 games
IoDJ
Io
34% · 115 games
Crystal MaidenDuBu
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed22:30
Team SMG 51%Bleed Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 46:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMidOne
53% · 77 games47% · 74 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAhFu
53% · 103 games54% · 146 games
Beastmastericeiceice
Beastmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
47% · 199 games50% · 64 games
TechiesDJ
Techies
45% · 95 games
SilencerDuBu
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct33:27
Team SMG 47%Bleed Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 51:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
46% · 222 games56% · 48 games
AlchemistJaCkky
Alchemist
Clinkz
ClinkzJaunuel
47% · 11 games54% · 47 games
Underlordiceiceice
Underlord
Techies
TechiesAhFu
48% · 62 games49% · 113 games
EnchantressDJ
Enchantress
54% · 87 games
SilencerDuBu
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 51%
Series resultBleed Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3