Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TToLightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Doomoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Cty · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 1 game
Rubick
iceice · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Cty · 1 game
ToLight
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
769 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 454 bans
Tiny
430 picks · 379 bans
Beastmaster
420 picks · 981 bans
Nature's Prophet
396 picks · 674 bans
Undying
396 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 923 bans
Doom
388 picks · 556 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
Team Zero 64%ToLight 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeCty
Axekaidou
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Io谢乐zzz张泽中
Earth Spirit7e
Keeper of the Lighticeice
Crystal Maidenzzq
Game 2prediction correct36:20
Team Zero 64%ToLight 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaCty
Underlordkaidou
DoomBEYOND
Crystal Maiden谢乐zzz张泽中
Pangolier7e
Lioniceice
Warlockzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 74%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2