Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XERXIAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 20 games
Miranasignature
Varizh · 14 games
Pugnasignature
db- · 10 games
Rubicksignature
Jhocam · 10 games
Batridersignature
Yowe · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Varizh · 8 games
Doomoften banned
db- · 8 games
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 8 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
768 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 453 bans
Tiny
431 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
420 picks · 981 bans
Nature's Prophet
397 picks · 675 bans
Undying
395 picks · 595 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 922 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 73%
Hero pool strength60% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:25
Army Geniuses 55%XERXIA 45%
The model gave 55% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 38:55.
Game 2prediction correct
Army Geniuses 55%XERXIA 45%
The model gave 55% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 55%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2