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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Su4 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakiro
Sj · 12 games
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ash · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Drink · 7 games
86%

Su4 Esports

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yyh_ · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dstones · 1 game
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Yyh_ · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
768 picks · 604 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 453 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
431 picks · 380 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
420 picks · 977 bans
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
397 picks · 675 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
395 picks · 592 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 917 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
388 picks · 209 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Su4 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:8
iG Vitality 52%Su4 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 19:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomTzy
58% · 65 games44% · 113 games
Void SpiritDstones
Void Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
48% · 47 games54% · 109 games
Skywrath MageYyh_
Skywrath Mage
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidukiyo
59% · 33 games
Pugna
PugnaHara
57% · 20 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPonyo
38% · 57 games
Game 2prediction missed26:25
iG Vitality 52%Su4 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Su4 Esports in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerukiyo
52% · 23 games42% · 36 games
WindrangerDstones
Windranger
Magnus
MagnusButterflyEffect
55% · 8 games40% · 39 games
PugnaYyh_
Pugna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTzy
55% · 14 games
Techies
TechiesHara
63% · 11 games
Io
IoPonyo
71% · 19 games
Game 3prediction correct42:17
iG Vitality 50%Su4 Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidukiyo
49% · 40 games53% · 58 games
KunkkaDstones
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
54% · 70 games46% · 150 games
EnchantressYyh_
Enchantress
Magnus
MagnusTzy
53% · 15 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHara
50% · 40 games
Silencer
SilencerPonyo
50% · 43 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSu4 Esports · 51%
Series resultiG Vitality 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3