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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kiri · 15 games
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
Genek · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 10 games
30%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
22%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 8 games
38%

Mad Kings

Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 20 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 15 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 15 games
80%
Silencer
Silencer
Gardick · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
ArzenT · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
770 picks · 605 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 452 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 381 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 975 bans
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 676 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
398 picks · 592 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 919 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
388 picks · 210 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 69%
Hero pool strength59% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:20
Infinity Esports 40%Mad Kings 60%
The model gave 60% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusAdrx
44% · 55 games51% · 129 games
BloodseekerDaaD-
Bloodseeker
Puck
PuckLeostyle
56% · 183 games56% · 422 games
BeastmasterArzenT
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomFrank
53% · 217 games46% · 444 games
Ember SpiritPiPi
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickKiri
44% · 400 games47% · 80 games
PugnaGenek
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorPrada
51% · 220 games
Game 2prediction missed46:18
Infinity Esports 43%Mad Kings 57%
The model gave 57% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 45:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightAdrx
45% · 53 games50% · 131 game
BloodseekerDaaD-
Bloodseeker
Doom
DoomFrank
51% · 84 games51% · 54 games
Legion CommanderArzenT
Legion Commander
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLeostyle
50% · 56 games52% · 97 games
TechiesGenek
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPrada
45% · 95 games46% · 91 game
Nyx AssassinPiPi
Nyx Assassin
Mirana
MiranaKiri
60% · 85 games
Game 3prediction correct16:30
Infinity Esports 41%Mad Kings 59%
The model gave 59% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAdrx
49% · 112 games58% · 116 games
AlchemistDaaD-
Alchemist
Pugna
PugnaLeostyle
40% · 38 games48% · 36 games
TinkerPiPi
Tinker
Tidehunter
TidehunterFrank
50% · 35 games51% · 261 game
DoomArzenT
Doom
Rubick
RubickKiri
50% · 234 games50% · 110 games
TechiesGenek
Techies
Undying
UndyingPrada
49% · 104 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 65%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3