Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Triseumwin 1:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
S.W.A.T.loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Triseum
Muertaoften banned
Ark · 1 game
S.W.A.T.
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
773 picks · 601 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 449 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 382 bans
Beastmaster
416 picks · 977 bans
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 684 bans
Undying
399 picks · 593 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 916 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Triseum
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% S.W.A.T.
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Triseum 46%S.W.A.T. 54%
The model gave 54% on S.W.A.T. — the game was taken by Triseum.
Model check result
Model favoriteS.W.A.T. · 54%
Series resultTriseum 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1