Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kickedwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMUKAKUDAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kicked
No games played over 6 months.
MUKAKUDA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
778 picks · 600 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
416 picks · 978 bans
Nature's Prophet
405 picks · 685 bans
Undying
399 picks · 595 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 916 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Kicked
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% MUKAKUDA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:12
Team Kicked 47%MUKAKUDA 53%
The model gave 53% on MUKAKUDA — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 38:31.
Game 2prediction missed36:15
Team Kicked 47%MUKAKUDA 53%
The model gave 53% on MUKAKUDA — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 24:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteMUKAKUDA · 53%
Series resultTeam Kicked 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2