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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South America Rejects

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wits · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 6 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Scofield · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Elmisho · 5 games
60%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 44 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
58%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 33 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 563 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 412 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
464 picks · 523 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
455 picks · 228 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
400 picks · 247 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1029 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 900 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:40
South America Rejects 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperDarkMago
54% · 34 games55% · 48 games
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Faceless Void
Kez
KezWits
58% · 88 games44% · 135 games
Queen of PainMirage
Queen of Pain
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFrank
49% · 154 games49% · 73 games
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Phoenix
PhoenixElmisho
43% · 218 games44% · 89 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeScofield
59% · 58 games52% · 207 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed32:10
South America Rejects 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingWits
52% · 202 games68% · 29 games
Broodmotherssnovv1
Broodmother
Doom
DoomFrank
51% · 176 games54% · 198 games
BristlebackCorrupted
Bristleback
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDarkMago
53% · 64 games42% · 271 game
PangolierMirage
Pangolier
Venomancer
VenomancerElmisho
48% · 69 games47% · 202 games
Ringmastersayuw
Ringmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
48% · 363 games50% · 174 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed27:20
South America Rejects 47%HULIGANI 53%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerWits
44% · 81 game54% · 222 games
Monkey Kingssnovv1
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDarkMago
52% · 212 games55% · 170 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierFrank
45% · 291 game53% · 243 games
Sand KingMirage
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
53% · 283 games50% · 99 games
VenomancerRESPECT
Venomancer
Enchantress
EnchantressElmisho
47% · 130 games47% · 263 games
Ringmastersayuw
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 52%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3