Su4 Esports vs The Last Dark — prediction DPC2S3КЗО · Dota 2

Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

SESu4 Esportsloss 0:2

series probability

34%66%

probability at match start · final 0:2

TLThe Last Darkwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Su4 Esports

No games played over 6 months.

The Last Dark

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

776 picks · 596 bans

47%

Disruptor

547 picks · 448 bans

54%

Tiny

438 picks · 380 bans

53%

Beastmaster

415 picks · 976 bans

58%

Nature's Prophet

406 picks · 688 bans

54%

Undying

400 picks · 594 bans

49%

Ember Spirit

390 picks · 915 bans

52%

Mirana

390 picks · 210 bans

56%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%

Hero pool strength50% Su4 Esports

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total66% The Last Dark

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct22:26

Su4 Esports 43%The Last Dark 57%

The model gave 57% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 37:51.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo