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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Piggy Killerloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 10 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JT- · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 9 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Ghost · 8 games
88%

Piggy Killer

Tiny
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 5 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
Frisk · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Victoria · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 4 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Victoria · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
776 picks · 596 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
546 picks · 448 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 380 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
414 picks · 975 bans
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 688 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
400 picks · 594 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 914 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
389 picks · 210 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 80%
Hero pool strength61% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:34
Xtreme Gaming 53%Piggy Killer 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
47% · 113 games53% · 168 games
Slarkflyfly
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPaparazi
41% · 352 games49% · 62 games
OmniknightXm
Omniknight
Batrider
BatriderJT-
53% · 217 games54% · 298 games
BeastmasterSrf
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaDy
54% · 342 games47% · 253 games
Crystal MaidenFrisk
Crystal Maiden
Lion
LionKaka
48% · 36 games52% · 279 games
Disruptormercy
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct26:10
Xtreme Gaming 54%Piggy Killer 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
50% · 142 games53% · 40 games
Svenflyfly
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
56% · 191 game53% · 233 games
PangolierXm
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusJT-
47% · 70 games50% · 185 games
DoomSrf
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressDy
43% · 289 games54% · 110 games
Keeper of the LightFrisk
Keeper of the Light
Lion
LionKaka
49% · 41 game43% · 165 games
Crystal Maidenmercy
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct29:12
Xtreme Gaming 55%Piggy Killer 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
48% · 81 game56% · 72 games
MedusaXm
Medusa
Doom
DoomJT-
50% · 181 game51% · 179 games
Monkey Kingflyfly
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPaparazi
52% · 160 games52% · 140 games
Keeper of the LightFrisk
Keeper of the Light
Oracle
OracleDy
52% · 13 games44% · 54 games
MagnusSrf
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKaka
48% · 61 game46% · 51 game
Earth Spiritmercy
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 57%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3