iG Vitality vs dldfans — prediction DPC2S3КЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

iG Vitalityloss 1:2

series probability

46%54%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Ddldfanswin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Jakiro

Sj · 12 games

58%

Shadow Fiendoften banned

ukiyo · 11 games

45%

Monkey Kingoften banned

ukiyo · 9 games

33%

Ember Spiritsignature

Ash · 8 games

75%

Undyingoften banned

Sj · 8 games

50%

Disruptor

Drink · 7 games

29%

Tusksignature

Drink · 7 games

86%

Drow Rangeroften banned

ukiyo · 6 games

33%

dldfans

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

774 picks · 597 bans

47%

Disruptor

548 picks · 448 bans

54%

Tiny

439 picks · 380 bans

53%

Beastmaster

413 picks · 973 bans

58%

Nature's Prophet

408 picks · 688 bans

54%

Undying

399 picks · 593 bans

49%

Mirana

389 picks · 209 bans

56%

Ember Spirit

388 picks · 912 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%

Hero pool strength51% iG Vitality

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total54% dldfans

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed28:8

iG Vitality 50%dldfans 50%

The model gave 50% on dldfans — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 29:07.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo