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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
72%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 13 games
54%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 32 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 17 games
47%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
774 picks · 593 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 446 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 380 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
411 picks · 968 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 688 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
399 picks · 592 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
388 picks · 208 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 910 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total80% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Shopify Rebellion 70%TSM 30%
The model gave 70% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArteezy
50% · 143 games53% · 120 games
AlchemistTimado
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
50% · 209 games46% · 161 game
Timbersawkasane
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
52% · 194 games46% · 98 games
Void Spiritbryle-
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
52% · 195 games53% · 150 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFly
45% · 21 game49% · 233 games
SilencerWhitemon
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct21:4
Shopify Rebellion 69%TSM 31%
The model gave 69% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 21:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaArteezy
48% · 87 games49% · 161 game
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckAbed
56% · 202 games43% · 101 game
Underlordkasane
Underlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
52% · 262 games58% · 168 games
Storm Spiritbryle-
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
50% · 150 games45% · 56 games
PugnaAri
Pugna
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorFly
71% · 21 game42% · 236 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 80%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2