Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Universitario Esportsloss 0:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TRocketwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Universitario Esports
No games played over 6 months.
TRocket
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Luna
CarJua · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
775 picks · 593 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 969 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 689 bans
Undying
399 picks · 592 bans
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 910 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Universitario Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Universitario Esports 60%TRocket 40%
The model gave 60% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by TRocket.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 60%
Series resultTRocket 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1