DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BCBreeki Cheekiwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ALIS VENTORUS
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 7 games
Luna
paw · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 4 games
Tiny
paw · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Delight · 2 games
Breeki Cheeki
Slardaroften banned
ChodΣX · 6 games
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 4 games
Clockwerk
OneJey · 4 games
Magnus
OneJey · 4 games
Muerta
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 569 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 415 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 410 bans
Phoenix
462 picks · 525 bans
Hoodwink
454 picks · 229 bans
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1032 bans
Puck
387 picks · 901 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Breeki Cheeki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ALIS VENTORUS 35%Breeki Cheeki 65%
The model gave 65% on Breeki Cheeki — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki.
Game 2prediction correct15:33
ALIS VENTORUS 43%Breeki Cheeki 57%
The model gave 57% on Breeki Cheeki — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPanda
TinyDarkLord^
TidehunterNorma
Dark SeerChodΣX
Rubickwaveformn
Storm Spiritспортик
PhoenixDelight
Ioasdekor_r
54% · 101 game
ClockwerkOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteBreeki Cheeki · 65%
Series resultBreeki Cheeki 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2