DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 39 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 36 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 28 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 44 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 33 games
Tiny
erase · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 569 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 415 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 410 bans
Phoenix
462 picks · 524 bans
Hoodwink
453 picks · 229 bans
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1032 bans
Puck
387 picks · 900 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total65% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction missed29:10
Zero Tenacity 38%HULIGANI 62%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyKami
Lifestealerssnovv1
Queen of PainWorick
PangolierMirage
DoomNefrit
TidehunterCorrupted
TechiesdEsire
EnchantressRESPECT
RubickMoOz
Hoodwinksayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 65%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2